Nuclear Fission, Natural Gas, Geothermal Energy, Nuclear Fusion. The Future Role of Baseload Power Plants (Discussion Paper)

Baseload power plants have long been an important pillar of the electricity supply system. They have supplied large quantities of energy, helped to secure the stability of the system and reduced critical dependency on imports.

As well as completing its phase-out of nuclear power, Germany has also set itself the goal of becoming greenhouse-gas neutral by 2045 – especially as far as its energy supply is concerned. Policymakers have most recently stipulated that photovoltaic systems and wind turbines should take the lead in electricity generation. This will precipitate a fundamental change in the electricity sector: from always-available production in large power plants to a weather- and time-of-day-dependent system of numerous smaller plants spread out over larger areas.

With the energy system changing so substantially, what role will baseload power plants – such as nuclear power plants – play in the future? This question is all the more pertinent as demand for electricity is expected to grow with increased use of e.g. heat pumps and electric cars.

With this in mind, the ESYS experts have analysed whether and to what extent it might be beneficial for the German and European energy supply systems to incorporate baseload power plants into a restructured energy landscape. The experts also looked at the following questions:

• What are the distinguishing features of a baseload power plant?
• Which technologies are best suited for low-CO₂ baseload power plants?
• Are power plants of this type necessary to achieve a secure energy supply?
• How would they affect the overall costs of the energy supply system?
• And how would they change the energy system?

To answer these questions, the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) carried out a series of scenario analyses. ESYS experts then discussed and drew conclusions from the results. This Discussion Paper focuses on these conclusions.

The paper shows that a secure energy supply is possible without baseload power plants. If such plants are used, low-CO₂ variants would include nuclear power plants, geothermal energy, natural gas power plants and potentially nuclear fusion power plants. Their use would make sense above all if they were more cost effective than other energy sources (principally solar and wind power). But ist seems unlikely that they would reduce the overall costs of the energy supply system in the foreseeable future.

Having said that, this does not mean that baseload power plants will no longer be in the discussion for the energy supply system of the future. Indeed, if they can meet the economic, safety/security and climate policy requirements, they could prove a worthwhile addition to the energy supply system.

Stöcker, Philipp/ Erlach, Berit/ Wurbs, Sven/ Drake, Frank-Detlef/ Fischedick, Manfred/ Hanson, Jutta/Henning, Hans-Martin/ Kiewitt, Wilhelm/ Kreusel, Jochen/ Moser, Albert/ Münch, Wolfram/ Pittel, Karen/ Reuter, Albrecht/ Sauer, Dirk Uwe/ Schill, Wolf-Peter/ Spliethoff, Hartmut/ Stephanos, Cyril/ Weber, Christoph/ Weidlich, Anke: “Nuclear Fission, Natural Gas, Geothermal Energy, Nuclear Fusion. The Future Role of Baseload Power Plants” (Discussion Paper), Series on “Energy Systems of the Future” (ESYS), 2025

To the press release