Most likely no operational power plants before 2045: academies of science evaluate current state of nuclear fusion research

Berlin, 28 November 2024

There has been a surge of interest in nuclear fusion over the past two years. But where is nuclear fusion research really at today? While the stability and energy records have been repeatedly broken in experiments, the switch-on of the ITER test reactor has been delayed once more. In a new paper, the Academies’ Project “Energy Systems of the Future” (ESYS) discusses the technology’s potential and challenges and concludes that nuclear fusion is unlikely to contribute to meeting Germany and Europe’s climate targets by 2045.

There are hopes that nuclear fusion research can deliver an additional climate-friendly, base load-capable energy source that requires relatively little space. However, opinion among nuclear fusion and energy experts is divided regarding nuclear fusion’s actual potential and how soon it could be realised. This prompted the “Energy Systems of the Future” (ESYS) project – a joint initiative of acatech, Leopoldina and the Union of the German Academies of Sciences and Humanities – to publish an overview of the topic.

The ESYS Discussion Paper “Can Nuclear Fusion Contribute to a Net-Zero Energy Supply? Opportunities, Challenges and Timeframes” highlights the increase in nuclear fusion research activity in recent years and how this has been reflected in a growing number of companies and startups in this field. However, there is still a long way to go before the first operational power plant is built.

Fusion won’t play a key role in achieving climate targets: power plants unlikely before 2045

Although nuclear fusion’s physical principles are largely understood, none of the existing fusion concepts has a prototype yet. Several practical challenges must be overcome before a power plant can start operating. These include increasing the energy output, production of the tritium fuel and the development of extremely robust materials and high-power lasers.

Consequently, even if fusion can be successfully implemented, most experts estimate that it will be about 20 to 25 years before the first fusion power plant is built. This will be too late to make a meaningful contribution to meeting Germany and Europe’s 2045 and 2050 climate targets. In other words, nuclear fusion is no substitute for the expansion of renewable energy.